A new report from NerdWallet paints a pretty uncomfortable picture of the U.S. economy right now. Folks may still feel somewhat in control of their finances, but many are leaning on credit cards just to get through the month, and recession fears continue climbing.
The company this week launched its new Financial Resilience Index, a monthly score designed to measure how financially prepared Americans are to handle economic uncertainty. According to the inaugural report, U.S. households scored 60.4 out of 100. That suggests what NerdWallet describes as “moderate resilience,” although some of the underlying numbers tell a more stressful story.
For instance, 37 percent of Americans say they expect to rely on credit this month to cover at least some expenses. Even more concerning, that number reportedly remains fairly consistent across income levels. In other words, this is not just a lower-income problem anymore. Plenty of people earning decent salaries still appear to be feeling squeezed.
Meanwhile, 66 percent of Americans now expect the country to enter a recession within the next year. That is up from 61 percent when NerdWallet first began tracking recession expectations in 2025.
At the same time, 74 percent of respondents say they still feel in control of their day-to-day finances. That disconnect is fascinating to me. People may feel stable enough on the surface, but relying on debt to bridge everyday expenses is not exactly a sign of economic comfort. It feels more like Americans are adapting to permanent financial pressure rather than recovering from it.
The report also highlights sharp generational differences. Baby boomers appear far more financially confident than Gen Z adults, which probably will not surprise anyone paying attention to housing costs, student debt, or the modern job market. Parents with children under 18 also reported higher levels of financial strain than adults without children.
One stat that stood out was the number of Americans who could cover a surprise $1,000 expense using cash on hand. Overall, 63 percent said they could handle it. Among households earning under $50,000 annually, however, that figure drops to just 36 percent.
To be fair, NerdWallet is also promoting its new index here, so there is obviously a branding component to all of this. Still, the findings line up with what many Americans are already experiencing firsthand. Prices remain high, layoffs continue hitting parts of the tech industry, and people increasingly seem stuck in a cycle where debt has become normalized.
The strange thing about today’s economy is that people are still spending money. Restaurants remain crowded, new gadgets keep selling, and vacations are still happening. But beneath that surface, many households seem one unexpected bill away from real trouble.
