Weather forecasting could be about to get a lot smarter, folks. You see, Microsoft has introduced Aurora 1.5, an updated version of its open Earth-system foundation model that promises more detailed forecasts and a clearer picture of how uncertain those predictions might be.
Aurora 1.5 adds 22 weather variables, hourly forecasting and ensemble predictions.
Rather than producing one forecast and calling it a day, the model can run multiple simulations to show a range of possible outcomes. That matters because even small changes in the starting data can send a forecast in a different direction.
Microsoft says Aurora 1.5 could help energy companies, farmers, transportation providers and emergency planners make better decisions. The hourly forecasts may also provide more precise guidance around rainfall, wind conditions and tropical cyclone landfall.
The company claims Aurora 1.5 outperformed the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble system across 88.9 percent of the variables and forecast periods it evaluated.
Microsoft also says the model reduced tropical cyclone tracking errors during testing on storms from 2024 and 2025. By the fifth day of a forecast, the ensemble median reportedly produced roughly one-third less tracking error than the original Aurora model.
Those numbers sound promising, but they come from Microsoft’s own evaluation. Independent researchers will need to put Aurora 1.5 through its paces before anyone treats it as the final word on where a dangerous storm is headed.
Microsoft says Aurora is not meant to replace meteorologists or traditional physics-based forecasting systems. Instead, the model is designed to work alongside established tools and human expertise.
Aurora 1.5 is being released as open source on GitHub, with model checkpoints available through Hugging Face. Microsoft is also connecting it to commercial services including Microsoft Foundry and Planetary Computer Pro.
The UK Met Office is already exploring the technology, while energy company BKW is using Aurora 1.5 alongside other Microsoft Weather models. Related Aurora research is also being used for climate modeling and carbon-removal projects.
AI weather forecasting is starting to look far more useful than the usual chatbot gimmicks. Aurora 1.5 still needs real-world validation, but better storm predictions could have a real impact when lives, infrastructure and billions of dollars are on the line.
Support independent tech journalism
NERDS.xyz is independently owned and operated. If you enjoy my coverage of Linux, AI, hardware, cybersecurity, and tech culture, consider supporting the site on Ko-fi.
Support NERDS.xyz